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Pollok vs Benburb — FA Cup 2019

Pollok
Pollok
AET
2 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Benburb
Benburb
9/2/2023FA CupFA Cup · 2nd Preliminary RoundNewlandsfield Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Pollok56%
×Draw18%
Benburb25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Pollok
2.70
Benburb
1.80

Pollok creates 50% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 3 away

creates per match

Pollok
4.40
Benburb
2.00

allows per match

Pollok
1.60
Benburb
1.00

finishing

Pollok+0.00on par
Benburb+0.00on par

Total goals

82%Over
  • Over82
  • Under18

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

78%Yes
  • Yes78
  • No22

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pollok ↓

Benburb →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–12%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–03%
1–16%
1–25%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–04%
3–17%
3–26%
3–34%
3–42%
4
4–03%
4–15%
4–24%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (7%) · grid covers 85% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
94%6%2.5
82%18%3.5
65%35%4.5
46%54%

Double chance

Pollok or draw
75%
Pollok or Benburb
82%
Draw or Benburb
44%

Winning margin

Pollok wins by 2+
37%
Benburb wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Pollok 1+ goals
93%
Pollok 2+ goals
75%
Pollok 3+ goals
50%
Benburb 1+ goals
83%
Benburb 2+ goals
54%
Benburb 3+ goals
27%

Draw no bet

Pollok (draw refunded)
69%
Benburb (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
72%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pollok at home — creates 4.40, concedes 1.60 · 5 matches

Benburb away — creates 2.00, concedes 1.00 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pollok attack 4.40 + Benburb defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 2.70

Benburb attack 2.00 + Pollok defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.80

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Pollok scores more
56%
level
18%
Benburb scores more
25%

Pollok at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Pollok will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

FA Cup: Pollok 2–2 Benburb

Pollok and Benburb drew 2-2 in FA Cup on September 2, 2023.

The match was played at Newlandsfield Park in Glasgow.