Pollok 4–3 Annan Athletic: Result & Stats | FA Cup

Pollok

4 – 3

HT: 2 – 1

Annan Athletic

S. McCann 62'

F. Mullen 53'

D. Christie 45+2'

S. Fraser 5'

C. Williamson 80'

R. McCartney 66', 35'

10/24/2022

FA Cup · 2nd RoundNewlandsfield Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Pollok68%

×Draw15%

Annan Athletic17%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

PollokExpected goals in this matchAnnan Athletic

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

3.33

1.68

Pollok

3.33

Annan Athletic

1.68

Pollok creates 98% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 8 away

4.40

creates per match

1.75

1.60

allows per match

2.25

creates per match

Pollok

4.40

Annan Athletic

1.75

allows per match

Pollok

1.60

Annan Athletic

2.25

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Pollok+0.00on par

Annan Athletic+0.00on par

Total goals

Over87
Under13

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes78
No22

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pollok ↓

Annan Athletic →

0–01%

0–11%

0–21%

0–31%

0–40%

1–02%

1–14%

1–23%

1–32%

1–41%

2–04%

2–17%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3–04%

3–17%

3–26%

3–33%

3–41%

4–04%

4–16%

4–25%

4–33%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (7%) · grid covers 78% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

96%4%2.5

87%13%3.5

72%28%4.5

54%46%

Double chance

Pollok or draw

83%

Pollok or Annan Athletic

85%

Draw or Annan Athletic

32%

Winning margin

Pollok wins by 2+

49%

Annan Athletic wins by 2+

Team goals

Pollok 1+ goals

96%

Pollok 2+ goals

84%

Pollok 3+ goals

63%

Annan Athletic 1+ goals

81%

Annan Athletic 2+ goals

50%

Annan Athletic 3+ goals

24%

Draw no bet

Pollok (draw refunded)

80%

Annan Athletic (draw refunded)

20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

74%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Pollok at home — creates 4.40, concedes 1.60 · 5 matches

Annan Athletic away — creates 1.75, concedes 2.25 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Pollok attack 4.40 + Annan Athletic defence 2.25 → ÷2 → 3.33

Annan Athletic attack 1.75 + Pollok defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.68

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 68%?"

Pollok scores more

68%

level

15%

Annan Athletic scores more

17%

Pollok at 68% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 68% does not mean "Pollok will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

S. Fraser↳ F. Mullen

19'

R. Buchanan← A. Forde

35'

R. McCartney↳ T. Wallace

45+2'

D. Christie↳ S. Burns

53'

F. Mullen

62'

S. McCann

64'

A. Smith← J. Galloway

66'

R. McCartney↳ A. Smith

77'

B. Luissint← L. Hunter

80'

C. Williamson↳ R. McCartney

82'

C. Menzies← F. Mullen

85'

S. Docherty← S. Fraser

88'

R. Steele← R. McCartney

Pollok

Annan

⚽

▼

▼

⚽2A

▼

⚽A

▼

⚽

▼

▼

⚽

⚽

Manager: M. MacKinnon

19'▲R. Buchanan←▼A. Forde

82'▲C. Menzies←▼F. Mullen

85'▲S. Docherty←▼S. Fraser

Pollok substitutes

14Buchanan12Menzies17Docherty15McCann21Lumsden20Watters16Duff19Lyon18Sinnamon

Manager: P. Murphy

64'▲A. Smith←▼J. Galloway

77'▲B. Luissint←▼L. Hunter

88'▲R. Steele←▼R. McCartney

Annan Athletic substitutes

19Smith17Luissint15Steele12Mitchell14Swinglehurst16Lowdon18McMenamin

FA Cup: Pollok 4–3 Annan Athletic

Pollok beat Annan Athletic 4-3 in FA Cup on October 24, 2022.

Goals: S. Fraser (5'), R. McCartney (35', 66'), D. Christie (45+2'), F. Mullen (53'), S. McCann (62'), C. Williamson (80').

The match was played at Newlandsfield Park in Glasgow.

Pollok vs Annan Athletic — FA Cup 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

FA Cup: Pollok 4–3 Annan Athletic