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Politehnica Iasi vs SCM Gloria Buzău — Liga I 2018

Politehnica Iasi
Politehnica Iasi
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
SCM Gloria Buzău
SCM Gloria Buzău
7/27/2024Liga ILiga I · Round 3Stadionul Emil Alexandrescu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 21+ matches

Politehnica Iasi51%
×Draw24%
SCM Gloria Buzău24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Politehnica Iasi
1.68
SCM Gloria Buzău
1.08

Politehnica Iasi creates 56% more chances

Season form · 96 home / 21 away

creates per match

Politehnica Iasi
1.11
SCM Gloria Buzău
0.86

allows per match

Politehnica Iasi
1.30
SCM Gloria Buzău
2.24

finishing

Politehnica Iasi+0.00on par
SCM Gloria Buzău+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Politehnica Iasi ↓

SCM Gloria Buzău →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Politehnica Iasi or draw
76%
Politehnica Iasi or SCM Gloria Buzău
76%
Draw or SCM Gloria Buzău
49%

Winning margin

Politehnica Iasi wins by 2+
28%
SCM Gloria Buzău wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Politehnica Iasi 1+ goals
81%
Politehnica Iasi 2+ goals
50%
Politehnica Iasi 3+ goals
24%
SCM Gloria Buzău 1+ goals
66%
SCM Gloria Buzău 2+ goals
29%
SCM Gloria Buzău 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Politehnica Iasi (draw refunded)
68%
SCM Gloria Buzău (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Politehnica Iasi at home — creates 1.11, concedes 1.30 · 96 matches

SCM Gloria Buzău away — creates 0.86, concedes 2.24 · 21 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Politehnica Iasi attack 1.11 + SCM Gloria Buzău defence 2.24 → ÷2 → 1.68

SCM Gloria Buzău attack 0.86 + Politehnica Iasi defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Politehnica Iasi scores more
51%
level
24%
SCM Gloria Buzău scores more
24%

Politehnica Iasi at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Politehnica Iasi will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Liga I: Politehnica Iasi 1–2 SCM Gloria Buzău

SCM Gloria Buzău beat Politehnica Iasi 2-1 in Liga I on July 27, 2024.

The match was played at Stadionul Emil Alexandrescu in Iaşi.