Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Politehnica Iasi vs Rapid — Liga I 2018

Politehnica Iasi
Politehnica Iasi
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Rapid
Rapid
8/23/2024Liga ILiga I · Round 7Stadionul Emil Alexandrescu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 96+ matches

Politehnica Iasi35%
×Draw27%
Rapid38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Politehnica Iasi
1.19
Rapid
1.25

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 96 home / 99 away

creates per match

Politehnica Iasi
1.11
Rapid
1.21

allows per match

Politehnica Iasi
1.30
Rapid
1.26

finishing

Politehnica Iasi+0.00on par
Rapid+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Politehnica Iasi ↓

Rapid →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–111%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Politehnica Iasi or draw
62%
Politehnica Iasi or Rapid
73%
Draw or Rapid
65%

Winning margin

Politehnica Iasi wins by 2+
15%
Rapid wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Politehnica Iasi 1+ goals
70%
Politehnica Iasi 2+ goals
33%
Politehnica Iasi 3+ goals
12%
Rapid 1+ goals
71%
Rapid 2+ goals
36%
Rapid 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Politehnica Iasi (draw refunded)
48%
Rapid (draw refunded)
52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Politehnica Iasi at home — creates 1.11, concedes 1.30 · 96 matches

Rapid away — creates 1.21, concedes 1.26 · 99 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Politehnica Iasi attack 1.11 + Rapid defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.19

Rapid attack 1.21 + Politehnica Iasi defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Politehnica Iasi scores more
35%
level
27%
Rapid scores more
38%

Rapid at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Rapid will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Politehnica Iasi vs Rapid

Rapid beat Politehnica Iasi 2-1 in Liga I on August 23, 2024.

The match was played at Stadionul Emil Alexandrescu in Iaşi.