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Politehnica Iasi vs FC Clinceni — Liga I 2018

Politehnica Iasi
Politehnica Iasi
FT
2 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
FC Clinceni
FC Clinceni
7/26/2019Liga ILiga I · Round 3Stadionul Emil Alexandrescu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 59+ matches

Politehnica Iasi47%
×Draw25%
FC Clinceni27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Politehnica Iasi
1.54
FC Clinceni
1.10

Politehnica Iasi creates 40% more chances

Season form · 96 home / 59 away

creates per match

Politehnica Iasi
1.11
FC Clinceni
0.90

allows per match

Politehnica Iasi
1.30
FC Clinceni
1.98

finishing

Politehnica Iasi+0.00on par
FC Clinceni+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Politehnica Iasi ↓

FC Clinceni →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Politehnica Iasi or draw
73%
Politehnica Iasi or FC Clinceni
75%
Draw or FC Clinceni
53%

Winning margin

Politehnica Iasi wins by 2+
24%
FC Clinceni wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Politehnica Iasi 1+ goals
79%
Politehnica Iasi 2+ goals
45%
Politehnica Iasi 3+ goals
20%
FC Clinceni 1+ goals
67%
FC Clinceni 2+ goals
30%
FC Clinceni 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Politehnica Iasi (draw refunded)
64%
FC Clinceni (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Politehnica Iasi at home — creates 1.11, concedes 1.30 · 96 matches

FC Clinceni away — creates 0.90, concedes 1.98 · 59 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Politehnica Iasi attack 1.11 + FC Clinceni defence 1.98 → ÷2 → 1.54

FC Clinceni attack 0.90 + Politehnica Iasi defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Politehnica Iasi scores more
47%
level
25%
FC Clinceni scores more
27%

Politehnica Iasi at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Politehnica Iasi will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Politehnica Iasi vs FC Clinceni

Politehnica Iasi beat FC Clinceni 2-0 in Liga I on July 26, 2019.

The match was played at Stadionul Emil Alexandrescu in Iaşi.