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FC Clinceni vs Politehnica Iasi — Liga I 2018

FC Clinceni
FC Clinceni
FT
3 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Politehnica Iasi
Politehnica Iasi
7/26/2020Liga ILiga I · Relegation Round - 11Stadionul Clinceni

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 58+ matches

FC Clinceni40%
×Draw27%
Politehnica Iasi33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FC Clinceni
1.32
Politehnica Iasi
1.17

FC Clinceni creates 13% more chances

Season form · 58 home / 100 away

creates per match

FC Clinceni
0.97
Politehnica Iasi
0.87

allows per match

FC Clinceni
1.47
Politehnica Iasi
1.67

finishing

FC Clinceni+0.00on par
Politehnica Iasi+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Clinceni ↓

Politehnica Iasi →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

FC Clinceni or draw
67%
FC Clinceni or Politehnica Iasi
73%
Draw or Politehnica Iasi
60%

Winning margin

FC Clinceni wins by 2+
18%
Politehnica Iasi wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

FC Clinceni 1+ goals
73%
FC Clinceni 2+ goals
38%
FC Clinceni 3+ goals
15%
Politehnica Iasi 1+ goals
69%
Politehnica Iasi 2+ goals
33%
Politehnica Iasi 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

FC Clinceni (draw refunded)
55%
Politehnica Iasi (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Clinceni at home — creates 0.97, concedes 1.47 · 58 matches

Politehnica Iasi away — creates 0.87, concedes 1.67 · 100 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Clinceni attack 0.97 + Politehnica Iasi defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.32

Politehnica Iasi attack 0.87 + FC Clinceni defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

FC Clinceni scores more
40%
level
27%
Politehnica Iasi scores more
33%

FC Clinceni at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "FC Clinceni will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Liga I: FC Clinceni 3–0 Politehnica Iasi

FC Clinceni beat Politehnica Iasi 3-0 in Liga I on July 26, 2020.

The match was played at Stadionul Clinceni in Clinceni.