Politehnica Iasi 2–3 FC Astra Giurgiu

Politehnica Iasi

FT

2 – 3

HT: 1 – 3

FC Astra Giurgiu

2/14/2021

Liga I · Round 23Stadionul Emil Alexandrescu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 54+ matches

Politehnica Iasi34%

×Draw28%

FC Astra Giurgiu38%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Politehnica IasiExpected goals in this matchFC Astra Giurgiu

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.13

1.21

Politehnica Iasi

1.13

FC Astra Giurgiu

1.21

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 96 home / 54 away

1.11

creates per match

1.13

1.30

allows per match

1.15

creates per match

Politehnica Iasi

1.11

FC Astra Giurgiu

1.13

allows per match

Politehnica Iasi

1.30

FC Astra Giurgiu

1.15

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Politehnica Iasi+0.00on par

FC Astra Giurgiu+0.00on par

Total goals

Under59
Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Politehnica Iasi ↓

FC Astra Giurgiu →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–112%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–17%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

68%32%2.5

41%59%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Politehnica Iasi or draw

62%

Politehnica Iasi or FC Astra Giurgiu

72%

Draw or FC Astra Giurgiu

66%

Winning margin

Politehnica Iasi wins by 2+

14%

FC Astra Giurgiu wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Politehnica Iasi 1+ goals

68%

Politehnica Iasi 2+ goals

31%

Politehnica Iasi 3+ goals

11%

FC Astra Giurgiu 1+ goals

70%

FC Astra Giurgiu 2+ goals

34%

FC Astra Giurgiu 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Politehnica Iasi (draw refunded)

47%

FC Astra Giurgiu (draw refunded)

53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Politehnica Iasi at home — creates 1.11, concedes 1.30 · 96 matches

FC Astra Giurgiu away — creates 1.13, concedes 1.15 · 54 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Politehnica Iasi attack 1.11 + FC Astra Giurgiu defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.13

FC Astra Giurgiu attack 1.13 + Politehnica Iasi defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Politehnica Iasi scores more

34%

level

28%

FC Astra Giurgiu scores more

38%

FC Astra Giurgiu at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "FC Astra Giurgiu will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff