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Politehnica Iasi vs Farul Constanta — Liga I 2026

Politehnica Iasi
Politehnica Iasi
FT
2 – 3
HT: 0 – 3
Farul Constanta
Farul Constanta
12/1/2023Liga ILiga I · Round 18Stadionul Emil Alexandrescu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 96+ matches

Politehnica Iasi36%
×Draw28%
Farul Constanta36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Politehnica Iasi
1.21
Farul Constanta
1.21

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 96 home / 99 away

creates per match

Politehnica Iasi
1.11
Farul Constanta
1.12

allows per match

Politehnica Iasi
1.30
Farul Constanta
1.31

finishing

Politehnica Iasi+0.00on par
Farul Constanta+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Politehnica Iasi ↓

Farul Constanta →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–111%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Politehnica Iasi or draw
64%
Politehnica Iasi or Farul Constanta
72%
Draw or Farul Constanta
64%

Winning margin

Politehnica Iasi wins by 2+
15%
Farul Constanta wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Politehnica Iasi 1+ goals
70%
Politehnica Iasi 2+ goals
34%
Politehnica Iasi 3+ goals
12%
Farul Constanta 1+ goals
70%
Farul Constanta 2+ goals
34%
Farul Constanta 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Politehnica Iasi (draw refunded)
50%
Farul Constanta (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Politehnica Iasi at home — creates 1.11, concedes 1.30 · 96 matches

Farul Constanta away — creates 1.12, concedes 1.31 · 99 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Politehnica Iasi attack 1.11 + Farul Constanta defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.21

Farul Constanta attack 1.12 + Politehnica Iasi defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Politehnica Iasi scores more
36%
level
28%
Farul Constanta scores more
36%

Politehnica Iasi at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Politehnica Iasi will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Politehnica Iasi vs Farul Constanta

Farul Constanta beat Politehnica Iasi 3-2 in Liga I on December 1, 2023.

The match was played at Stadionul Emil Alexandrescu in Iaşi.