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Politehnica Iasi vs Corona Braşov — Liga II 2018

Politehnica Iasi
Politehnica Iasi
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Corona Braşov
Corona Braşov
2/26/2022Liga IILiga II · Round 17Stadionul Emil Alexandrescu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Politehnica Iasi59%
×Draw27%
Corona Braşov15%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Politehnica Iasi
1.46
Corona Braşov
0.58

Politehnica Iasi creates 152% more chances

Season form · 41 home / 9 away

creates per match

Politehnica Iasi
1.71
Corona Braşov
0.56

allows per match

Politehnica Iasi
0.61
Corona Braşov
1.22

finishing

Politehnica Iasi+0.00on par
Corona Braşov+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Under
  • Under67
  • Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

66%No
  • No66
  • Yes34

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Politehnica Iasi ↓

Corona Braşov →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–18%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–019%
1–111%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–014%
2–18%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–14%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (19%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
60%40%2.5
33%67%3.5
15%85%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Politehnica Iasi or draw
85%
Politehnica Iasi or Corona Braşov
73%
Draw or Corona Braşov
41%

Winning margin

Politehnica Iasi wins by 2+
30%
Corona Braşov wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Politehnica Iasi 1+ goals
77%
Politehnica Iasi 2+ goals
43%
Politehnica Iasi 3+ goals
18%
Corona Braşov 1+ goals
44%
Corona Braşov 2+ goals
12%
Corona Braşov 3+ goals
2%

Draw no bet

Politehnica Iasi (draw refunded)
80%
Corona Braşov (draw refunded)
20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
23%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Politehnica Iasi at home — creates 1.71, concedes 0.61 · 41 matches

Corona Braşov away — creates 0.56, concedes 1.22 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Politehnica Iasi attack 1.71 + Corona Braşov defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.46

Corona Braşov attack 0.56 + Politehnica Iasi defence 0.61 → ÷2 → 0.58

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Politehnica Iasi scores more
59%
level
27%
Corona Braşov scores more
15%

Politehnica Iasi at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Politehnica Iasi will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Politehnica Iasi vs Corona Braşov

Politehnica Iasi and Corona Braşov drew 1-1 in Liga II on February 26, 2022.

The match was played at Stadionul Emil Alexandrescu in Iaşi.