Politehnica Iasi 3–3 CFR 1907 Cluj: Result & Stats

Politehnica Iasi

FT

3 – 3

HT: 2 – 3

CFR 1907 Cluj

11/11/2023

Liga I · Round 16Stadionul Emil Alexandrescu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 96+ matches

Politehnica Iasi28%

×Draw27%

CFR 1907 Cluj45%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Politehnica IasiExpected goals in this matchCFR 1907 Cluj

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.03

1.39

Politehnica Iasi

1.03

CFR 1907 Cluj

1.39

CFR 1907 Cluj creates 35% more chances

Season form · 96 home / 154 away

1.11

creates per match

1.47

1.30

allows per match

0.95

creates per match

Politehnica Iasi

1.11

CFR 1907 Cluj

1.47

allows per match

Politehnica Iasi

1.30

CFR 1907 Cluj

0.95

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Politehnica Iasi+0.00on par

CFR 1907 Cluj+0.00on par

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Politehnica Iasi ↓

CFR 1907 Cluj →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–112%

0–29%

0–34%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–113%

1–29%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–05%

2–17%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–12%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

22%78%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Politehnica Iasi or draw

55%

Politehnica Iasi or CFR 1907 Cluj

73%

Draw or CFR 1907 Cluj

72%

Winning margin

Politehnica Iasi wins by 2+

10%

CFR 1907 Cluj wins by 2+

22%

Team goals

Politehnica Iasi 1+ goals

64%

Politehnica Iasi 2+ goals

28%

Politehnica Iasi 3+ goals

9%

CFR 1907 Cluj 1+ goals

75%

CFR 1907 Cluj 2+ goals

40%

CFR 1907 Cluj 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

Politehnica Iasi (draw refunded)

38%

CFR 1907 Cluj (draw refunded)

62%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Politehnica Iasi at home — creates 1.11, concedes 1.30 · 96 matches

CFR 1907 Cluj away — creates 1.47, concedes 0.95 · 154 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Politehnica Iasi attack 1.11 + CFR 1907 Cluj defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 1.03

CFR 1907 Cluj attack 1.47 + Politehnica Iasi defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.39

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Politehnica Iasi scores more

28%

level

27%

CFR 1907 Cluj scores more

45%

CFR 1907 Cluj at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "CFR 1907 Cluj will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff