Politehnica Iasi 0–2 AFC Hermannstadt

Politehnica Iasi

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 0

AFC Hermannstadt

1/25/2025

Liga I · Round 23Stadionul Emil Alexandrescu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 96+ matches

Politehnica Iasi40%

×Draw28%

AFC Hermannstadt32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Politehnica IasiExpected goals in this matchAFC Hermannstadt

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.27

1.10

Politehnica Iasi

1.27

AFC Hermannstadt

1.10

Politehnica Iasi creates 15% more chances

Season form · 96 home / 138 away

1.11

creates per match

0.90

1.30

allows per match

1.42

creates per match

Politehnica Iasi

1.11

AFC Hermannstadt

0.90

allows per match

Politehnica Iasi

1.30

AFC Hermannstadt

1.42

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Politehnica Iasi+0.00on par

AFC Hermannstadt+0.00on par

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Politehnica Iasi ↓

AFC Hermannstadt →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–110%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

68%32%2.5

42%58%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Politehnica Iasi or draw

68%

Politehnica Iasi or AFC Hermannstadt

72%

Draw or AFC Hermannstadt

60%

Winning margin

Politehnica Iasi wins by 2+

18%

AFC Hermannstadt wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Politehnica Iasi 1+ goals

72%

Politehnica Iasi 2+ goals

36%

Politehnica Iasi 3+ goals

14%

AFC Hermannstadt 1+ goals

67%

AFC Hermannstadt 2+ goals

30%

AFC Hermannstadt 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Politehnica Iasi (draw refunded)

56%

AFC Hermannstadt (draw refunded)

44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Politehnica Iasi at home — creates 1.11, concedes 1.30 · 96 matches

AFC Hermannstadt away — creates 0.90, concedes 1.42 · 138 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Politehnica Iasi attack 1.11 + AFC Hermannstadt defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.27

AFC Hermannstadt attack 0.90 + Politehnica Iasi defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Politehnica Iasi scores more

40%

level

28%

AFC Hermannstadt scores more

32%

Politehnica Iasi at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Politehnica Iasi will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff