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Politehnica Iasi vs ACS Sirineasa — Liga II 2018

Politehnica Iasi
Politehnica Iasi
FT
2 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
ACS Sirineasa
ACS Sirineasa
8/13/2022Liga IILiga II · Round 2Stadionul Emil Alexandrescu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 41+ matches

Politehnica Iasi56%
×Draw25%
ACS Sirineasa20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Politehnica Iasi
1.64
ACS Sirineasa
0.86

Politehnica Iasi creates 91% more chances

Season form · 41 home / 84 away

creates per match

Politehnica Iasi
1.71
ACS Sirineasa
1.11

allows per match

Politehnica Iasi
0.61
ACS Sirineasa
1.56

finishing

Politehnica Iasi+0.00on par
ACS Sirineasa+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Politehnica Iasi ↓

ACS Sirineasa →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
46%54%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Politehnica Iasi or draw
80%
Politehnica Iasi or ACS Sirineasa
75%
Draw or ACS Sirineasa
44%

Winning margin

Politehnica Iasi wins by 2+
30%
ACS Sirineasa wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Politehnica Iasi 1+ goals
81%
Politehnica Iasi 2+ goals
49%
Politehnica Iasi 3+ goals
23%
ACS Sirineasa 1+ goals
58%
ACS Sirineasa 2+ goals
21%
ACS Sirineasa 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Politehnica Iasi (draw refunded)
74%
ACS Sirineasa (draw refunded)
26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Politehnica Iasi at home — creates 1.71, concedes 0.61 · 41 matches

ACS Sirineasa away — creates 1.11, concedes 1.56 · 84 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Politehnica Iasi attack 1.71 + ACS Sirineasa defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.64

ACS Sirineasa attack 1.11 + Politehnica Iasi defence 0.61 → ÷2 → 0.86

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Politehnica Iasi scores more
56%
level
25%
ACS Sirineasa scores more
20%

Politehnica Iasi at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Politehnica Iasi will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Politehnica Iasi vs ACS Sirineasa

Politehnica Iasi beat ACS Sirineasa 2-0 in Liga II on August 13, 2022.

The match was played at Stadionul Emil Alexandrescu in Iaşi.