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Polisi Tanzania vs Tanzania Prisons — Ligi kuu Bara 2025

Polisi Tanzania
Polisi Tanzania
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Tanzania Prisons
Tanzania Prisons
P. Mapunda 90'
12/4/2021Ligi kuu BaraLigi kuu Bara · Round 8Ushirika Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Polisi Tanzania64%
×Draw23%
Tanzania Prisons13%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Polisi Tanzania
1.70
Tanzania Prisons
0.60

Polisi Tanzania creates 183% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 15 away

creates per match

Polisi Tanzania
2.00
Tanzania Prisons
0.80

allows per match

Polisi Tanzania
0.40
Tanzania Prisons
1.40

finishing

Polisi Tanzania+0.00on par
Tanzania Prisons+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

63%No
  • No63
  • Yes37

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Polisi Tanzania ↓

Tanzania Prisons →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–16%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–110%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–015%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–15%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Polisi Tanzania or draw
87%
Polisi Tanzania or Tanzania Prisons
77%
Draw or Tanzania Prisons
36%

Winning margin

Polisi Tanzania wins by 2+
37%
Tanzania Prisons wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Polisi Tanzania 1+ goals
82%
Polisi Tanzania 2+ goals
51%
Polisi Tanzania 3+ goals
24%
Tanzania Prisons 1+ goals
45%
Tanzania Prisons 2+ goals
12%
Tanzania Prisons 3+ goals
2%

Draw no bet

Polisi Tanzania (draw refunded)
83%
Tanzania Prisons (draw refunded)
17%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
27%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Polisi Tanzania at home — creates 2.00, concedes 0.40 · 5 matches

Tanzania Prisons away — creates 0.80, concedes 1.40 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Polisi Tanzania attack 2.00 + Tanzania Prisons defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.70

Tanzania Prisons attack 0.80 + Polisi Tanzania defence 0.40 → ÷2 → 0.60

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 64%?"

Polisi Tanzania scores more
64%
level
23%
Tanzania Prisons scores more
13%

Polisi Tanzania at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "Polisi Tanzania will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

90'
P. Mapunda

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Ligi kuu Bara: Polisi Tanzania 1–0 Tanzania Prisons

Polisi Tanzania beat Tanzania Prisons 1-0 in Ligi kuu Bara on December 4, 2021.

Goals: P. Mapunda (90').

The match was played at Ushirika Stadium in Moshi.