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Polisi Tanzania vs Geita Gold — Ligi kuu Bara 2019

Polisi Tanzania
Polisi Tanzania
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Geita Gold
Geita Gold
6/25/2022Ligi kuu BaraLigi kuu Bara · Round 29Ushirika Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Polisi Tanzania46%
×Draw30%
Geita Gold24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Polisi Tanzania
1.19
Geita Gold
0.77

Polisi Tanzania creates 55% more chances

Season form · 68 home / 45 away

creates per match

Polisi Tanzania
0.97
Geita Gold
0.82

allows per match

Polisi Tanzania
0.72
Geita Gold
1.40

finishing

Polisi Tanzania+0.00on par
Geita Gold+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Under
  • Under69
  • Over31

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

63%No
  • No63
  • Yes37

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Polisi Tanzania ↓

Geita Gold →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–014%
0–111%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
86%14%1.5
58%42%2.5
31%69%3.5
14%86%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Polisi Tanzania or draw
76%
Polisi Tanzania or Geita Gold
70%
Draw or Geita Gold
54%

Winning margin

Polisi Tanzania wins by 2+
20%
Geita Gold wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Polisi Tanzania 1+ goals
70%
Polisi Tanzania 2+ goals
33%
Polisi Tanzania 3+ goals
12%
Geita Gold 1+ goals
54%
Geita Gold 2+ goals
18%
Geita Gold 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Polisi Tanzania (draw refunded)
66%
Geita Gold (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
24%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Polisi Tanzania at home — creates 0.97, concedes 0.72 · 68 matches

Geita Gold away — creates 0.82, concedes 1.40 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Polisi Tanzania attack 0.97 + Geita Gold defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.19

Geita Gold attack 0.82 + Polisi Tanzania defence 0.72 → ÷2 → 0.77

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Polisi Tanzania scores more
46%
level
30%
Geita Gold scores more
24%

Polisi Tanzania at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Polisi Tanzania will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Ligi kuu Bara: Polisi Tanzania 0–1 Geita Gold

Geita Gold beat Polisi Tanzania 1-0 in Ligi kuu Bara on June 25, 2022.

The match was played at Ushirika Stadium in Moshi.