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Polin Pallo vs Töölön Taisto — Suomen Cup 2018

Polin Pallo
Polin Pallo
FT
1 – 5
HT: 1 – 3
Töölön Taisto
Töölön Taisto
4/28/2024Suomen CupSuomen Cup · 3rd RoundSäterinniitty Tekonurmi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Polin Pallo21%
×Draw16%
Töölön Taisto63%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Polin Pallo
1.85
Töölön Taisto
3.21

Töölön Taisto creates 74% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 7 away

creates per match

Polin Pallo
2.57
Töölön Taisto
2.86

allows per match

Polin Pallo
3.57
Töölön Taisto
1.14

finishing

Polin Pallo+0.00on par
Töölön Taisto+0.00on par

Total goals

87%Over
  • Over87
  • Under13

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

81%Yes
  • Yes81
  • No19

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Polin Pallo ↓

Töölön Taisto →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–12%
0–23%
0–34%
0–43%
1
1–01%
1–14%
1–26%
1–37%
1–45%
2
2–01%
2–14%
2–26%
2–36%
2–45%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–24%
3–34%
3–43%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–22%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 1–3 (7%) · grid covers 79% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
96%4%2.5
87%13%3.5
73%27%4.5
55%45%

Double chance

Polin Pallo or draw
37%
Polin Pallo or Töölön Taisto
84%
Draw or Töölön Taisto
79%

Winning margin

Polin Pallo wins by 2+
10%
Töölön Taisto wins by 2+
44%

Team goals

Polin Pallo 1+ goals
84%
Polin Pallo 2+ goals
55%
Polin Pallo 3+ goals
28%
Töölön Taisto 1+ goals
96%
Töölön Taisto 2+ goals
82%
Töölön Taisto 3+ goals
60%

Draw no bet

Polin Pallo (draw refunded)
25%
Töölön Taisto (draw refunded)
75%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
77%
Both score & under 3
4%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Polin Pallo at home — creates 2.57, concedes 3.57 · 7 matches

Töölön Taisto away — creates 2.86, concedes 1.14 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Polin Pallo attack 2.57 + Töölön Taisto defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.85

Töölön Taisto attack 2.86 + Polin Pallo defence 3.57 → ÷2 → 3.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

Polin Pallo scores more
21%
level
16%
Töölön Taisto scores more
63%

Töölön Taisto at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "Töölön Taisto will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Polin Pallo vs Töölön Taisto

Töölön Taisto beat Polin Pallo 5-1 in Suomen Cup on April 28, 2024.

The match was played at Säterinniitty Tekonurmi in Esbo.