Polin Pallo 3–1 SAPA II: Result & Stats

Polin Pallo

3 – 1

SAPA II

3/30/2023

Suomen Cup · 2nd RoundKeski-Espoo 2 TN

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Polin Pallo27%

×Draw18%

SAPA II55%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Polin PalloExpected goals in this matchSAPA II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.95

2.79

Polin Pallo

1.95

SAPA II

2.79

SAPA II creates 43% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 3 away

2.57

creates per match

2.00

3.57

allows per match

1.33

creates per match

Polin Pallo

2.57

SAPA II

2.00

allows per match

Polin Pallo

3.57

SAPA II

1.33

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Polin Pallo+0.00on par

SAPA II+0.00on par

Total goals

Over85
Under15

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes80
No20

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Polin Pallo ↓

SAPA II →

0–01%

0–13%

0–23%

0–33%

0–42%

1–02%

1–15%

1–27%

1–36%

1–44%

2–02%

2–15%

2–27%

2–36%

2–44%

3–01%

3–13%

3–24%

3–34%

3–43%

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (7%) · grid covers 83% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

95%5%2.5

85%15%3.5

69%31%4.5

50%50%

Double chance

Polin Pallo or draw

45%

Polin Pallo or SAPA II

82%

Draw or SAPA II

73%

Winning margin

Polin Pallo wins by 2+

13%

SAPA II wins by 2+

36%

Team goals

Polin Pallo 1+ goals

86%

Polin Pallo 2+ goals

58%

Polin Pallo 3+ goals

31%

SAPA II 1+ goals

94%

SAPA II 2+ goals

76%

SAPA II 3+ goals

52%

Draw no bet

Polin Pallo (draw refunded)

33%

SAPA II (draw refunded)

67%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

75%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Polin Pallo at home — creates 2.57, concedes 3.57 · 7 matches

SAPA II away — creates 2.00, concedes 1.33 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Polin Pallo attack 2.57 + SAPA II defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.95

SAPA II attack 2.00 + Polin Pallo defence 3.57 → ÷2 → 2.79

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 55%?"

Polin Pallo scores more

27%

level

18%

SAPA II scores more

55%

SAPA II at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "SAPA II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff