Polin Pallo 4–2 HJK / Kantsu: Result & Stats

Polin Pallo

4 – 2

HJK / Kantsu

3/18/2023

Suomen Cup · 1st RoundKeski-Espoo 2 TN

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Polin Pallo17%

×Draw14%

HJK / Kantsu69%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Polin PalloExpected goals in this matchHJK / Kantsu

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.08

3.99

Polin Pallo

2.08

HJK / Kantsu

3.99

HJK / Kantsu creates 92% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 5 away

2.57

creates per match

4.40

3.57

allows per match

1.60

creates per match

Polin Pallo

2.57

HJK / Kantsu

4.40

allows per match

Polin Pallo

3.57

HJK / Kantsu

1.60

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Polin Pallo+0.00on par

HJK / Kantsu+0.00on par

Total goals

Over93
Under7

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes86
No14

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Polin Pallo ↓

HJK / Kantsu →

0–00%

0–11%

0–22%

0–33%

0–43%

1–01%

1–12%

1–24%

1–36%

1–46%

2–01%

2–12%

2–24%

2–36%

2–46%

3–00%

3–12%

3–23%

3–34%

3–44%

4–00%

4–11%

4–22%

4–32%

4–42%

Most likely 1–3 (6%) · grid covers 67% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

100%0%1.5

98%2%2.5

93%7%3.5

84%16%4.5

69%31%

Double chance

Polin Pallo or draw

31%

Polin Pallo or HJK / Kantsu

86%

Draw or HJK / Kantsu

83%

Winning margin

Polin Pallo wins by 2+

HJK / Kantsu wins by 2+

51%

Team goals

Polin Pallo 1+ goals

87%

Polin Pallo 2+ goals

61%

Polin Pallo 3+ goals

34%

HJK / Kantsu 1+ goals

98%

HJK / Kantsu 2+ goals

90%

HJK / Kantsu 3+ goals

73%

Draw no bet

Polin Pallo (draw refunded)

20%

HJK / Kantsu (draw refunded)

80%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

83%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Polin Pallo at home — creates 2.57, concedes 3.57 · 7 matches

HJK / Kantsu away — creates 4.40, concedes 1.60 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Polin Pallo attack 2.57 + HJK / Kantsu defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 2.08

HJK / Kantsu attack 4.40 + Polin Pallo defence 3.57 → ÷2 → 3.99

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 69%?"

Polin Pallo scores more

17%

level

14%

HJK / Kantsu scores more

69%

HJK / Kantsu at 69% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 69% does not mean "HJK / Kantsu will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff