Polideportivo Almería 0–0 Torreperogil

Polideportivo Almería

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Torreperogil

3/14/2021

Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 · Group 9 - 19Ciudad Deportiva Los Ángeles

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 62+ matches

Polideportivo Almería44%

×Draw27%

Torreperogil29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Polideportivo AlmeríaExpected goals in this matchTorreperogil

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.40

1.07

Polideportivo Almería

1.40

Torreperogil

1.07

Polideportivo Almería creates 31% more chances

Season form · 62 home / 109 away

1.26

creates per match

0.87

1.27

allows per match

1.53

creates per match

Polideportivo Almería

1.26

Torreperogil

0.87

allows per match

Polideportivo Almería

1.27

Torreperogil

1.53

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Polideportivo Almería+0.00on par

Torreperogil+0.00on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Polideportivo Almería ↓

Torreperogil →

0–08%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

45%55%3.5

24%76%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Polideportivo Almería or draw

71%

Polideportivo Almería or Torreperogil

73%

Draw or Torreperogil

56%

Winning margin

Polideportivo Almería wins by 2+

21%

Torreperogil wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Polideportivo Almería 1+ goals

75%

Polideportivo Almería 2+ goals

41%

Polideportivo Almería 3+ goals

17%

Torreperogil 1+ goals

66%

Torreperogil 2+ goals

29%

Torreperogil 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Polideportivo Almería (draw refunded)

61%

Torreperogil (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Polideportivo Almería at home — creates 1.26, concedes 1.27 · 62 matches

Torreperogil away — creates 0.87, concedes 1.53 · 109 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Polideportivo Almería attack 1.26 + Torreperogil defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.40

Torreperogil attack 0.87 + Polideportivo Almería defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 44%?"

Polideportivo Almería scores more

44%

level

27%

Torreperogil scores more

29%

Polideportivo Almería at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Polideportivo Almería will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

52'

Ángel Gómez← Sergio Jiménez

58'

Alejandro← Chaquetas

64'

Ablaye← Alonso

71'

Álvaro Cruz← Sergio Ponte

80'

Kevin Torres← Zakaría

82'

Jorge← Fran

Polideportivo

Torreperogil

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

Manager: Ricardo García

64'▲Ablaye←▼Alonso

71'▲Álvaro Cruz←▼Sergio Ponte

80'▲Kevin Torres←▼Zakaría

Polideportivo Almería substitutes

AblayeCruzTorres

Manager: Antonio Torres

52'▲Ángel Gómez←▼Sergio Jiménez

58'▲Alejandro←▼Chaquetas

82'▲Jorge←▼Fran

Torreperogil substitutes

GómezAlejandroJorge

Match Recap: Polideportivo Almería vs Torreperogil

Polideportivo Almería and Torreperogil drew 0-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 on March 14, 2021.

The match was played at Ciudad Deportiva Los Ángeles in Almería.

Polideportivo Almería vs Torreperogil — Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Polideportivo Almería vs Torreperogil