Polideportivo Almería 4–1 Malaga City

Polideportivo Almería

4 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Malaga City

Josema 75'

Daniel Lidueña 70'

Guille Espínola 69'

Pablo Abarca 19'

Yerai Ariza 49'

12/22/2024

Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 · Group 9 - 16Ciudad Deportiva Los Ángeles

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 49+ matches

Polideportivo Almería52%

×Draw25%

Malaga City23%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Polideportivo AlmeríaExpected goals in this matchMalaga City

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.61

0.97

Polideportivo Almería

1.61

Malaga City

0.97

Polideportivo Almería creates 66% more chances

Season form · 62 home / 49 away

1.26

creates per match

0.67

1.27

allows per match

1.96

creates per match

Polideportivo Almería

1.26

Malaga City

0.67

allows per match

Polideportivo Almería

1.27

Malaga City

1.96

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Polideportivo Almería+0.00on par

Malaga City+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Polideportivo Almería ↓

Malaga City →

0–08%

0–17%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1–012%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–31%

2–40%

3–05%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Polideportivo Almería or draw

77%

Polideportivo Almería or Malaga City

75%

Draw or Malaga City

48%

Winning margin

Polideportivo Almería wins by 2+

28%

Malaga City wins by 2+

Team goals

Polideportivo Almería 1+ goals

80%

Polideportivo Almería 2+ goals

48%

Polideportivo Almería 3+ goals

22%

Malaga City 1+ goals

62%

Malaga City 2+ goals

25%

Malaga City 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Polideportivo Almería (draw refunded)

70%

Malaga City (draw refunded)

30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Polideportivo Almería at home — creates 1.26, concedes 1.27 · 62 matches

Malaga City away — creates 0.67, concedes 1.96 · 49 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Polideportivo Almería attack 1.26 + Malaga City defence 1.96 → ÷2 → 1.61

Malaga City attack 0.67 + Polideportivo Almería defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 0.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 52%?"

Polideportivo Almería scores more

52%

level

25%

Malaga City scores more

23%

Polideportivo Almería at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Polideportivo Almería will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

19'

Pablo Abarca

36'

Josema← Jorge Gómez

46'

Balta← Andrés del Río

47'

Antoñito← Pablo Escobar

49'

Yerai Ariza

55'

Diego Felices← Campanas

55'

Juanjo López← Marcal Metcho

61'

Miguel Campaña← Yerai Ariza

65'

H. El Ouakili← Pablo Checa

65'

Guille Espínola← Antoñito

69'

70'

75'

76'

76'

Polideportivo

Malaga

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

Manager: Amando Alarcón

36'▲Josema←▼Jorge Gómez

55'▲Diego Felices←▼Campanas

55'▲Juanjo López←▼Marcal Metcho

65'▲H. El Ouakili←▼Pablo Checa

65'▲Guille Espínola←▼Antoñito

Polideportivo Almería substitutes

JosemaFelicesLópezOuakiliEspínola

Manager: Hugo Díez

46'▲Balta←▼Andrés del Río

47'▲Antoñito←▼Pablo Escobar

61'▲Miguel Campaña←▼Yerai Ariza

76'▲Amin←▼Héctor Arriola

76'▲Daniel Durán←▼Juanca

Malaga City substitutes

BaltaAntoñitoCampañaAminDurán

Match Recap: Polideportivo Almería vs Malaga City

Polideportivo Almería beat Malaga City 4-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 on December 22, 2024.

Goals: Pablo Abarca (19'), Yerai Ariza (49'), Guille Espínola (69'), Daniel Lidueña (70'), Josema (75').

The match was played at Ciudad Deportiva Los Ángeles in Almería.

Polideportivo Almería vs Malaga City — Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Polideportivo Almería vs Malaga City