Polideportivo Almería 4–1 Huétor Vega

Polideportivo Almería

4 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Huétor Vega

Álex Medina 90+5'

Álvaro de la Rosa 76'

Dani Mesas 51'

Campanas 50'

Jorge Galdón 34'

4/7/2024

Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 · Group 9 - 28Ciudad Deportiva Los Ángeles

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 62+ matches

Polideportivo Almería40%

×Draw27%

Huétor Vega33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Polideportivo AlmeríaExpected goals in this matchHuétor Vega

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.32

1.16

Polideportivo Almería

1.32

Huétor Vega

1.16

Polideportivo Almería creates 14% more chances

Season form · 62 home / 109 away

1.26

creates per match

1.04

1.27

allows per match

1.38

creates per match

Polideportivo Almería

1.26

Huétor Vega

1.04

allows per match

Polideportivo Almería

1.27

Huétor Vega

1.38

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Polideportivo Almería+0.00on par

Huétor Vega+0.00on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Polideportivo Almería ↓

Huétor Vega →

0–08%

0–110%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1–011%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

45%55%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Polideportivo Almería or draw

67%

Polideportivo Almería or Huétor Vega

73%

Draw or Huétor Vega

60%

Winning margin

Polideportivo Almería wins by 2+

18%

Huétor Vega wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Polideportivo Almería 1+ goals

73%

Polideportivo Almería 2+ goals

38%

Polideportivo Almería 3+ goals

15%

Huétor Vega 1+ goals

69%

Huétor Vega 2+ goals

32%

Huétor Vega 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Polideportivo Almería (draw refunded)

55%

Huétor Vega (draw refunded)

45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Polideportivo Almería at home — creates 1.26, concedes 1.27 · 62 matches

Huétor Vega away — creates 1.04, concedes 1.38 · 109 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Polideportivo Almería attack 1.26 + Huétor Vega defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.32

Huétor Vega attack 1.04 + Polideportivo Almería defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 40%?"

Polideportivo Almería scores more

40%

level

27%

Huétor Vega scores more

33%

Polideportivo Almería at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Polideportivo Almería will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

34'

Jorge Galdón

50'

Campanas

51'

Dani Mesas

60'

Kiko Carmona← Dani Salvatierra

60'

Joel Armengol← Antonio

71'

Álvaro de la Rosa← Dani Mesas

71'

Pablo Checa← Dani Garzón

71'

A. El Baroudi← Campanas

76'

Aarón Martín← Jorge Vela

76'

Álvaro de la Rosa

80'

Córdoba← Diego Felices

88'

Javi Prieto← Padilla

89'

Álex Medina← Félix

90+5'

Álex Medina

Polideportivo

Huétor

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

Campanas

⚽

▼

Mesas

Manager: Carlos Hinojo

71'▲Álvaro de la Rosa←▼Dani Mesas

71'▲Pablo Checa←▼Dani Garzón

71'▲A. El Baroudi←▼Campanas

80'▲Córdoba←▼Diego Felices

89'▲Álex Medina←▼Félix

Polideportivo Almería substitutes

RosaChecaBaroudiCórdobaMedina

Manager: Thierry

60'▲Kiko Carmona←▼Dani Salvatierra

60'▲Joel Armengol←▼Antonio

76'▲Aarón Martín←▼Jorge Vela

88'▲Javi Prieto←▼Padilla

Huétor Vega substitutes

CarmonaArmengolMartínPrieto

Match Recap: Polideportivo Almería vs Huétor Vega

Polideportivo Almería beat Huétor Vega 4-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 on April 7, 2024.

Goals: Jorge Galdón (34'), Campanas (50'), Dani Mesas (51'), Álvaro de la Rosa (76'), Álex Medina (90+5').

The match was played at Ciudad Deportiva Los Ángeles in Almería.

Polideportivo Almería vs Huétor Vega — Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Polideportivo Almería vs Huétor Vega