Polideportivo Almería 1–1 Huétor Tájar

Polideportivo Almería

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Huétor Tájar

Luis Suanes 90+5'

Manu Daza 76' (pen)

11/29/2020

Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 · Group 9 - 7Estadio de la Juventud Emilio Campra

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 62+ matches

Polideportivo Almería40%

×Draw27%

Huétor Tájar33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Polideportivo AlmeríaExpected goals in this matchHuétor Tájar

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.35

1.19

Polideportivo Almería

1.35

Huétor Tájar

1.19

Polideportivo Almería creates 13% more chances

Season form · 62 home / 109 away

1.26

creates per match

1.11

1.27

allows per match

1.45

creates per match

Polideportivo Almería

1.26

Huétor Tájar

1.11

allows per match

Polideportivo Almería

1.27

Huétor Tájar

1.45

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Polideportivo Almería+0.00on par

Huétor Tájar+0.00on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Polideportivo Almería ↓

Huétor Tájar →

0–08%

0–19%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2–07%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

47%53%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Polideportivo Almería or draw

67%

Polideportivo Almería or Huétor Tájar

73%

Draw or Huétor Tájar

60%

Winning margin

Polideportivo Almería wins by 2+

19%

Huétor Tájar wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Polideportivo Almería 1+ goals

74%

Polideportivo Almería 2+ goals

39%

Polideportivo Almería 3+ goals

15%

Huétor Tájar 1+ goals

70%

Huétor Tájar 2+ goals

33%

Huétor Tájar 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Polideportivo Almería (draw refunded)

55%

Huétor Tájar (draw refunded)

45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Polideportivo Almería at home — creates 1.26, concedes 1.27 · 62 matches

Huétor Tájar away — creates 1.11, concedes 1.45 · 109 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Polideportivo Almería attack 1.26 + Huétor Tájar defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.35

Huétor Tájar attack 1.11 + Polideportivo Almería defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 40%?"

Polideportivo Almería scores more

40%

level

27%

Huétor Tájar scores more

33%

Polideportivo Almería at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Polideportivo Almería will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

60'

Dani Carrillo← Juan Carlos

60'

Delgado← Miguel Quevedo

65'

Dani Garzón← Álvaro Cruz

73'

Miyi← Alejandro Casado

76'

Manu DazaPenalty

77'

Marcos Moreno← Alonso

82'

Juanje← Manu Daza

82'

Andoni Tello← Mario Fernández

85'

Luis Suanes← Josema

85'

Pedro Ruzzo← Sergio Ponte

85'

David Simón← Moussa

90+5'

Luis Suanes

Polideportivo

Huétor

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

Manager: Juanfran Miras

65'▲Dani Garzón←▼Álvaro Cruz

77'▲Marcos Moreno←▼Alonso

85'▲Luis Suanes←▼Josema

85'▲Pedro Ruzzo←▼Sergio Ponte

85'▲David Simón←▼Moussa

Polideportivo Almería substitutes

GarzónMorenoSuanesRuzzoSimón

Manager: Manuel Moreno

60'▲Dani Carrillo←▼Juan Carlos

60'▲Delgado←▼Miguel Quevedo

73'▲Miyi←▼Alejandro Casado

82'▲Juanje←▼Manu Daza

82'▲Andoni Tello←▼Mario Fernández

Huétor Tájar substitutes

CarrilloDelgadoMiyiJuanjeTello

Tercera División RFEF - Group 9: Polideportivo Almería 1–1 Huétor Tájar

Polideportivo Almería and Huétor Tájar drew 1-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 on November 29, 2020.

Goals: Manu Daza (76' pen), Luis Suanes (90+5').

The match was played at Estadio de la Juventud Emilio Campra in Almería.

Polideportivo Almería vs Huétor Tájar — Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Tercera División RFEF - Group 9: Polideportivo Almería 1–1 Huétor Tájar