Huétor Tájar 1–0 Polideportivo Almería

Huétor Tájar

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Polideportivo Almería

Juan Ignacio 19'

12/1/2024

Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 · Group 9 - 13Estadio Municipal Miguel Moranto

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 63+ matches

Huétor Tájar55%

×Draw24%

Polideportivo Almería21%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Huétor TájarExpected goals in this matchPolideportivo Almería

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.68

0.93

Huétor Tájar

1.68

Polideportivo Almería

0.93

Huétor Tájar creates 81% more chances

Season form · 110 home / 63 away

1.49

creates per match

0.84

1.01

allows per match

1.86

creates per match

Huétor Tájar

1.49

Polideportivo Almería

0.84

allows per match

Huétor Tájar

1.01

Polideportivo Almería

1.86

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Huétor Tájar+0.00on par

Polideportivo Almería+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Huétor Tájar ↓

Polideportivo Almería →

0–07%

0–17%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1–012%

1–112%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2–010%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3–06%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Huétor Tájar or draw

79%

Huétor Tájar or Polideportivo Almería

76%

Draw or Polideportivo Almería

45%

Winning margin

Huétor Tájar wins by 2+

30%

Polideportivo Almería wins by 2+

Team goals

Huétor Tájar 1+ goals

81%

Huétor Tájar 2+ goals

50%

Huétor Tájar 3+ goals

24%

Polideportivo Almería 1+ goals

61%

Polideportivo Almería 2+ goals

24%

Polideportivo Almería 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Huétor Tájar (draw refunded)

73%

Polideportivo Almería (draw refunded)

27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Huétor Tájar at home — creates 1.49, concedes 1.01 · 110 matches

Polideportivo Almería away — creates 0.84, concedes 1.86 · 63 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Huétor Tájar attack 1.49 + Polideportivo Almería defence 1.86 → ÷2 → 1.68

Polideportivo Almería attack 0.84 + Huétor Tájar defence 1.01 → ÷2 → 0.93

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 55%?"

Huétor Tájar scores more

55%

level

24%

Polideportivo Almería scores more

21%

Huétor Tájar at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Huétor Tájar will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

19'

Juan Ignacio

46'

Pablo Checa← Guille Espínola

63'

Dani Mesas← Campanas

63'

Marcal Metcho← Pablo Abarca

65'

Falcao← Juanan Entrena

65'

Esteban← Alex Utrilla

75'

Pablo Merino← Alberto Borrego

77'

Córdoba← Diego Felices

83'

Francisco Cobos← Dani Carrillo

83'

L. Hayes← Juan Ignacio

83'

Juanjo López← Antoñito

84'

Esteban

84'

Esteban

Huétor

Polideportivo

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

Manager: Julio Catalá

65'▲Falcao←▼Juanan Entrena

65'▲Esteban←▼Alex Utrilla

75'▲Pablo Merino←▼Alberto Borrego

83'▲Francisco Cobos←▼Dani Carrillo

83'▲L. Hayes←▼Juan Ignacio

Huétor Tájar substitutes

FalcaoEstebanMerinoCobosHayes

Manager: David Cartagena

46'▲Pablo Checa←▼Guille Espínola

63'▲Dani Mesas←▼Campanas

63'▲Marcal Metcho←▼Pablo Abarca

77'▲Córdoba←▼Diego Felices

83'▲Juanjo López←▼Antoñito

Polideportivo Almería substitutes

ChecaMesasMetchoCórdobaLópez

Tercera División RFEF - Group 9: Huétor Tájar 1–0 Polideportivo Almería

Huétor Tájar beat Polideportivo Almería 1-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 on December 1, 2024.

Goals: Juan Ignacio (19').

The match was played at Estadio Municipal Miguel Moranto in Huétor Tájar.

Huétor Tájar vs Polideportivo Almería — Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Tercera División RFEF - Group 9: Huétor Tájar 1–0 Polideportivo Almería