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Polideportivo Almería vs Alhaurín — Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 2019

Polideportivo Almería
Polideportivo Almería
FT
3 – 4
HT: 1 – 3
Alhaurín
Alhaurín
9/22/2019Tercera División RFEF - Group 9Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 · Group 9 - 5Estadio de la Juventud Emilio Campra

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 43+ matches

Polideportivo Almería51%
×Draw24%
Alhaurín25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Polideportivo Almería
1.73
Alhaurín
1.13

Polideportivo Almería creates 53% more chances

Season form · 62 home / 43 away

creates per match

Polideportivo Almería
1.26
Alhaurín
0.98

allows per match

Polideportivo Almería
1.27
Alhaurín
2.21

finishing

Polideportivo Almería+0.00on par
Alhaurín+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Polideportivo Almería ↓

Alhaurín →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–16%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
54%46%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Polideportivo Almería or draw
75%
Polideportivo Almería or Alhaurín
76%
Draw or Alhaurín
49%

Winning margin

Polideportivo Almería wins by 2+
28%
Alhaurín wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Polideportivo Almería 1+ goals
82%
Polideportivo Almería 2+ goals
52%
Polideportivo Almería 3+ goals
25%
Alhaurín 1+ goals
68%
Alhaurín 2+ goals
31%
Alhaurín 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Polideportivo Almería (draw refunded)
67%
Alhaurín (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Polideportivo Almería at home — creates 1.26, concedes 1.27 · 62 matches

Alhaurín away — creates 0.98, concedes 2.21 · 43 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Polideportivo Almería attack 1.26 + Alhaurín defence 2.21 → ÷2 → 1.73

Alhaurín attack 0.98 + Polideportivo Almería defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Polideportivo Almería scores more
51%
level
24%
Alhaurín scores more
25%

Polideportivo Almería at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Polideportivo Almería will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Polideportivo Almería vs Alhaurín

Alhaurín beat Polideportivo Almería 4-3 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 on September 22, 2019.

The match was played at Estadio de la Juventud Emilio Campra in Almería.