Police 4–0 Wazito FC: Result & Stats

Police

FT

4 – 0

HT: 3 – 0

Wazito FC

1/4/2023

FKF Premier League · Round 6Kasarani Annex Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 71+ matches

Police55%

×Draw27%

Wazito FC18%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

PoliceExpected goals in this matchWazito FC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.44

0.70

Police

1.44

Wazito FC

0.70

Police creates 106% more chances

Season form · 71 home / 77 away

1.42

creates per match

0.75

0.65

allows per match

1.45

creates per match

Police

1.42

Wazito FC

0.75

allows per match

Police

0.65

Wazito FC

1.45

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Police+0.00on par

Wazito FC+0.00on par

Total goals

Under64
Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No62
Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Police ↓

Wazito FC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–18%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–017%

1–112%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–19%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–14%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

63%37%2.5

36%64%3.5

17%83%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Police or draw

82%

Police or Wazito FC

73%

Draw or Wazito FC

45%

Winning margin

Police wins by 2+

28%

Wazito FC wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Police 1+ goals

76%

Police 2+ goals

42%

Police 3+ goals

18%

Wazito FC 1+ goals

50%

Wazito FC 2+ goals

16%

Wazito FC 3+ goals

3%

Draw no bet

Police (draw refunded)

75%

Wazito FC (draw refunded)

25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

27%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Police at home — creates 1.42, concedes 0.65 · 71 matches

Wazito FC away — creates 0.75, concedes 1.45 · 77 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Police attack 1.42 + Wazito FC defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.44

Wazito FC attack 0.75 + Police defence 0.65 → ÷2 → 0.70

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Police scores more

55%

level

27%

Wazito FC scores more

18%

Police at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Police will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff