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Police vs URA — Premier League 2019

Police
Police
FT
2 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
URA
URA
4/25/2025Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 25Kavumba Recreation Center

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 71+ matches

Police40%
×Draw28%
URA32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Police
1.22
URA
1.07

Police creates 14% more chances

Season form · 71 home / 98 away

creates per match

Police
1.48
URA
1.13

allows per match

Police
1.01
URA
0.96

finishing

Police+0.00on par
URA+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Police ↓

URA →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–111%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Police or draw
68%
Police or URA
72%
Draw or URA
60%

Winning margin

Police wins by 2+
17%
URA wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Police 1+ goals
70%
Police 2+ goals
34%
Police 3+ goals
12%
URA 1+ goals
66%
URA 2+ goals
29%
URA 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Police (draw refunded)
55%
URA (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Police at home — creates 1.48, concedes 1.01 · 71 matches

URA away — creates 1.13, concedes 0.96 · 98 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Police attack 1.48 + URA defence 0.96 → ÷2 → 1.22

URA attack 1.13 + Police defence 1.01 → ÷2 → 1.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Police scores more
40%
level
28%
URA scores more
32%

Police at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Police will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Police 2 – 0 URA

Police beat URA 2-0 in Premier League on April 25, 2025.

The match was played at Kavumba Recreation Center in Wakiso.