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Police vs Nzoia Sugar — FKF Premier League 2018

Police
Police
FT
2 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Nzoia Sugar
Nzoia Sugar
1/21/2024FKF Premier LeagueFKF Premier League · Round 18Police Sacco Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 71+ matches

Police50%
×Draw28%
Nzoia Sugar23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Police
1.37
Nzoia Sugar
0.83

Police creates 65% more chances

Season form · 71 home / 112 away

creates per match

Police
1.42
Nzoia Sugar
1.01

allows per match

Police
0.65
Nzoia Sugar
1.32

finishing

Police+0.00on par
Nzoia Sugar+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Under
  • Under62
  • Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Police ↓

Nzoia Sugar →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
38%62%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Police or draw
77%
Police or Nzoia Sugar
72%
Draw or Nzoia Sugar
50%

Winning margin

Police wins by 2+
24%
Nzoia Sugar wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Police 1+ goals
75%
Police 2+ goals
40%
Police 3+ goals
16%
Nzoia Sugar 1+ goals
56%
Nzoia Sugar 2+ goals
20%
Nzoia Sugar 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Police (draw refunded)
69%
Nzoia Sugar (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Police at home — creates 1.42, concedes 0.65 · 71 matches

Nzoia Sugar away — creates 1.01, concedes 1.32 · 112 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Police attack 1.42 + Nzoia Sugar defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.37

Nzoia Sugar attack 1.01 + Police defence 0.65 → ÷2 → 0.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Police scores more
50%
level
28%
Nzoia Sugar scores more
23%

Police at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Police will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Police vs Nzoia Sugar

Police beat Nzoia Sugar 2-0 in FKF Premier League on January 21, 2024.

The match was played at Police Sacco Stadium in Nairobi.