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Police vs Nouakchott Academie — Premier League 2020

Police
Police
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Nouakchott Academie
Nouakchott Academie
12/14/2025Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 9

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Police26%
×Draw34%
Nouakchott Academie39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Police
0.71
Nouakchott Academie
0.94

Nouakchott Academie creates 32% more chances

Season form · 50 home / 13 away

creates per match

Police
0.88
Nouakchott Academie
0.85

allows per match

Police
1.02
Nouakchott Academie
0.54

finishing

Police+0.00on par
Nouakchott Academie+0.00on par

Total goals

77%Under
  • Under77
  • Over23

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

69%No
  • No69
  • Yes31

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Police ↓

Nouakchott Academie →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–019%
0–118%
0–28%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–05%
2–15%
2–22%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–01%
3–11%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (19%) · grid covers 100% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
81%19%1.5
49%51%2.5
23%77%3.5
9%91%4.5
3%97%

Double chance

Police or draw
61%
Police or Nouakchott Academie
66%
Draw or Nouakchott Academie
74%

Winning margin

Police wins by 2+
8%
Nouakchott Academie wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Police 1+ goals
51%
Police 2+ goals
16%
Police 3+ goals
4%
Nouakchott Academie 1+ goals
61%
Nouakchott Academie 2+ goals
24%
Nouakchott Academie 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Police (draw refunded)
40%
Nouakchott Academie (draw refunded)
60%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
18%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Police at home — creates 0.88, concedes 1.02 · 50 matches

Nouakchott Academie away — creates 0.85, concedes 0.54 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Police attack 0.88 + Nouakchott Academie defence 0.54 → ÷2 → 0.71

Nouakchott Academie attack 0.85 + Police defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 0.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Police scores more
26%
level
34%
Nouakchott Academie scores more
39%

Nouakchott Academie at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Nouakchott Academie will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Police vs Nouakchott Academie

Nouakchott Academie beat Police 1-0 in Premier League on December 14, 2025.