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Police vs MYDA — Premier League 2019

Police
Police
FT
6 – 1
MYDA
MYDA
B. Ocen 80', 3'
B. Mayanja 30', 14'
M. Mawejje 27'
Zaga 15'
M. Batali 43'
4/24/2021Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 20MTN Omondi Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Police64%
×Draw20%
MYDA16%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Police
2.17
MYDA
1.00

Police creates 117% more chances

Season form · 71 home / 13 away

creates per match

Police
1.48
MYDA
1.00

allows per match

Police
1.01
MYDA
2.85

finishing

Police+0.00on par
MYDA+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Police ↓

MYDA →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–19%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–17%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
39%61%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Police or draw
84%
Police or MYDA
80%
Draw or MYDA
36%

Winning margin

Police wins by 2+
40%
MYDA wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Police 1+ goals
89%
Police 2+ goals
64%
Police 3+ goals
36%
MYDA 1+ goals
63%
MYDA 2+ goals
26%
MYDA 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Police (draw refunded)
80%
MYDA (draw refunded)
20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Police at home — creates 1.48, concedes 1.01 · 71 matches

MYDA away — creates 1.00, concedes 2.85 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Police attack 1.48 + MYDA defence 2.85 → ÷2 → 2.17

MYDA attack 1.00 + Police defence 1.01 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 64%?"

Police scores more
64%
level
20%
MYDA scores more
16%

Police at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "Police will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

3'
B. Ocen
14'
B. Mayanja
15'
Zaga
22'
M. Batali← M. Batali
27'
M. Mawejje
30'
B. Mayanja
43'
M. Batali
46'
T. Mawejje← T. Mawejje
46'
D. Kakooza← D. Kakooza
61'
D. Sseninde← D. Sseninde
61'
E. Ssenjobe← E. Ssenjobe
75'
M. Nsubuga← M. Nsubuga
80'
B. Ocen

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Police 6 – 1 MYDA

Police beat MYDA 6-1 in Premier League on April 24, 2021.

Goals: B. Ocen (3', 80'), B. Mayanja (14', 30'), Zaga (15'), M. Mawejje (27'), M. Batali (43').

The match was played at MTN Omondi Stadium in Kampala.