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Police vs Murang'a SEAL — FKF Premier League 2018

Police
Police
FT
3 – 1
HT: 2 – 1
Murang'a SEAL
Murang'a SEAL
3/15/2025FKF Premier LeagueFKF Premier League · Round 24Kenyatta Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 50+ matches

Police50%
×Draw29%
Murang'a SEAL21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Police
1.30
Murang'a SEAL
0.73

Police creates 78% more chances

Season form · 71 home / 50 away

creates per match

Police
1.42
Murang'a SEAL
0.82

allows per match

Police
0.65
Murang'a SEAL
1.18

finishing

Police+0.00on par
Murang'a SEAL+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Under
  • Under67
  • Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

62%No
  • No62
  • Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Police ↓

Murang'a SEAL →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–110%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
60%40%2.5
33%67%3.5
15%85%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Police or draw
79%
Police or Murang'a SEAL
71%
Draw or Murang'a SEAL
50%

Winning margin

Police wins by 2+
24%
Murang'a SEAL wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Police 1+ goals
73%
Police 2+ goals
37%
Police 3+ goals
14%
Murang'a SEAL 1+ goals
52%
Murang'a SEAL 2+ goals
17%
Murang'a SEAL 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Police (draw refunded)
71%
Murang'a SEAL (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
25%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Police at home — creates 1.42, concedes 0.65 · 71 matches

Murang'a SEAL away — creates 0.82, concedes 1.18 · 50 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Police attack 1.42 + Murang'a SEAL defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.30

Murang'a SEAL attack 0.82 + Police defence 0.65 → ÷2 → 0.73

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Police scores more
50%
level
29%
Murang'a SEAL scores more
21%

Police at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Police will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Police vs Murang'a SEAL

Police beat Murang'a SEAL 3-1 in FKF Premier League on March 15, 2025.

The match was played at Kenyatta Stadium in Machakos.