Police 1–1 Muhoroni Youth: Result & Stats

Police

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Muhoroni Youth

3/10/2024

FKF Premier League · Round 22Police Sacco Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Police46%

×Draw32%

Muhoroni Youth22%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

PoliceExpected goals in this matchMuhoroni Youth

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.12

0.68

Police

1.12

Muhoroni Youth

0.68

Police creates 65% more chances

Season form · 71 home / 17 away

1.42

creates per match

0.71

0.65

allows per match

0.82

creates per match

Police

1.42

Muhoroni Youth

0.71

allows per match

Police

0.65

Muhoroni Youth

0.82

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Police+0.00on par

Muhoroni Youth+0.00on par

Total goals

Under73
Over27

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No67
Yes33

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Police ↓

Muhoroni Youth →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–017%

0–111%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–019%

1–113%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–17%

2–22%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (19%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

83%17%1.5

54%46%2.5

27%73%3.5

11%89%4.5

4%96%

Double chance

Police or draw

78%

Police or Muhoroni Youth

68%

Draw or Muhoroni Youth

54%

Winning margin

Police wins by 2+

20%

Muhoroni Youth wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Police 1+ goals

67%

Police 2+ goals

31%

Police 3+ goals

10%

Muhoroni Youth 1+ goals

49%

Muhoroni Youth 2+ goals

15%

Muhoroni Youth 3+ goals

3%

Draw no bet

Police (draw refunded)

67%

Muhoroni Youth (draw refunded)

33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

21%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Police at home — creates 1.42, concedes 0.65 · 71 matches

Muhoroni Youth away — creates 0.71, concedes 0.82 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Police attack 1.42 + Muhoroni Youth defence 0.82 → ÷2 → 1.12

Muhoroni Youth attack 0.71 + Police defence 0.65 → ÷2 → 0.68

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Police scores more

46%

level

32%

Muhoroni Youth scores more

22%

Police at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Police will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff