Police 2–1 Mbale Heroes: Result & Stats

Police

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Mbale Heroes

10/30/2024

Premier League · Round 7Kavumba Recreation Center

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Police69%

×Draw19%

Mbale Heroes12%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

PoliceExpected goals in this matchMbale Heroes

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.14

0.77

Police

2.14

Mbale Heroes

0.77

Police creates 178% more chances

Season form · 71 home / 15 away

1.48

creates per match

0.53

1.01

allows per match

2.80

creates per match

Police

1.48

Mbale Heroes

0.53

allows per match

Police

1.01

Mbale Heroes

2.80

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Police+0.00on par

Mbale Heroes+0.00on par

Total goals

Over55
Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Police ↓

Mbale Heroes →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–14%

0–22%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–19%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–013%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–09%

3–17%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–05%

4–14%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (13%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

55%45%3.5

33%67%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Police or draw

88%

Police or Mbale Heroes

81%

Draw or Mbale Heroes

31%

Winning margin

Police wins by 2+

44%

Mbale Heroes wins by 2+

3%

Team goals

Police 1+ goals

88%

Police 2+ goals

63%

Police 3+ goals

36%

Mbale Heroes 1+ goals

54%

Mbale Heroes 2+ goals

18%

Mbale Heroes 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Police (draw refunded)

85%

Mbale Heroes (draw refunded)

15%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Police at home — creates 1.48, concedes 1.01 · 71 matches

Mbale Heroes away — creates 0.53, concedes 2.80 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Police attack 1.48 + Mbale Heroes defence 2.80 → ÷2 → 2.14

Mbale Heroes attack 0.53 + Police defence 1.01 → ÷2 → 0.77

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 69%?"

Police scores more

69%

level

19%

Mbale Heroes scores more

12%

Police at 69% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 69% does not mean "Police will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff