Police 1–2 Maroons: Result & Stats | Premier League

Police

FT

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

Maroons

12/19/2024

Premier League · Round 13Kavumba Recreation Center

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 71+ matches

Police48%

×Draw27%

Maroons25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

PoliceExpected goals in this matchMaroons

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.45

0.97

Police

1.45

Maroons

0.97

Police creates 49% more chances

Season form · 71 home / 71 away

1.48

creates per match

0.92

1.01

allows per match

1.42

creates per match

Police

1.48

Maroons

0.92

allows per match

Police

1.01

Maroons

1.42

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Police+0.00on par

Maroons+0.00on par

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Police ↓

Maroons →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–19%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

22%78%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Police or draw

75%

Police or Maroons

73%

Draw or Maroons

52%

Winning margin

Police wins by 2+

24%

Maroons wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Police 1+ goals

77%

Police 2+ goals

42%

Police 3+ goals

18%

Maroons 1+ goals

62%

Maroons 2+ goals

25%

Maroons 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Police (draw refunded)

66%

Maroons (draw refunded)

34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Police at home — creates 1.48, concedes 1.01 · 71 matches

Maroons away — creates 0.92, concedes 1.42 · 71 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Police attack 1.48 + Maroons defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.45

Maroons attack 0.92 + Police defence 1.01 → ÷2 → 0.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Police scores more

48%

level

27%

Maroons scores more

25%

Police at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Police will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff