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Police vs Gourel Sangue — Premier League 2020

Police
Police
FT
2 – 2
HT: 2 – 1
Gourel Sangue
Gourel Sangue
3/12/2022Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 16Stade Cheikha Ould Boïdiya

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Police64%
×Draw20%
Gourel Sangue16%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Police
2.06
Gourel Sangue
0.90

Police creates 129% more chances

Season form · 50 home / 13 away

creates per match

Police
0.88
Gourel Sangue
0.77

allows per match

Police
1.02
Gourel Sangue
3.23

finishing

Police+0.00on par
Gourel Sangue+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Police ↓

Gourel Sangue →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–15%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–110%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–22%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
57%43%3.5
34%66%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Police or draw
84%
Police or Gourel Sangue
80%
Draw or Gourel Sangue
36%

Winning margin

Police wins by 2+
40%
Gourel Sangue wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Police 1+ goals
87%
Police 2+ goals
61%
Police 3+ goals
34%
Gourel Sangue 1+ goals
59%
Gourel Sangue 2+ goals
23%
Gourel Sangue 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Police (draw refunded)
80%
Gourel Sangue (draw refunded)
20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Police at home — creates 0.88, concedes 1.02 · 50 matches

Gourel Sangue away — creates 0.77, concedes 3.23 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Police attack 0.88 + Gourel Sangue defence 3.23 → ÷2 → 2.06

Gourel Sangue attack 0.77 + Police defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 0.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 64%?"

Police scores more
64%
level
20%
Gourel Sangue scores more
16%

Police at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "Police will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Police vs Gourel Sangue

Police and Gourel Sangue drew 2-2 in Premier League on March 12, 2022.

The match was played at Stade Cheikha Ould Boïdiya in Nouakchott.