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Police vs Gorilla — National Soccer League 2019

Police
Police
FT
4 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Gorilla
Gorilla
1/3/2026National Soccer LeagueNational Soccer League · Regular SeasonKigali Pelé Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 85+ matches

Police46%
×Draw29%
Gorilla24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Police
1.26
Gorilla
0.83

Police creates 52% more chances

Season form · 95 home / 85 away

creates per match

Police
1.48
Gorilla
0.78

allows per match

Police
0.89
Gorilla
1.04

finishing

Police+0.00on par
Gorilla+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Under
  • Under65
  • Over35

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

60%No
  • No60
  • Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Police ↓

Gorilla →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–110%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
62%38%2.5
35%65%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Police or draw
76%
Police or Gorilla
71%
Draw or Gorilla
54%

Winning margin

Police wins by 2+
21%
Gorilla wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Police 1+ goals
72%
Police 2+ goals
36%
Police 3+ goals
13%
Gorilla 1+ goals
56%
Gorilla 2+ goals
20%
Gorilla 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Police (draw refunded)
65%
Gorilla (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
27%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Police at home — creates 1.48, concedes 0.89 · 95 matches

Gorilla away — creates 0.78, concedes 1.04 · 85 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Police attack 1.48 + Gorilla defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 1.26

Gorilla attack 0.78 + Police defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 0.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Police scores more
46%
level
29%
Gorilla scores more
24%

Police at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Police will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

National Soccer League: Police 4–0 Gorilla

Police beat Gorilla 4-0 in National Soccer League on January 3, 2026.

The match was played at Kigali Pelé Stadium in Kigali.