Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Police vs Espoir — National Soccer League 2019

Police
Police
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Espoir
Espoir
1/27/2023National Soccer LeagueNational Soccer League · Round 17Muhanga Regional Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 50+ matches

Police57%
×Draw25%
Espoir18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Police
1.63
Espoir
0.79

Police creates 106% more chances

Season form · 95 home / 50 away

creates per match

Police
1.48
Espoir
0.70

allows per match

Police
0.89
Espoir
1.78

finishing

Police+0.00on par
Espoir+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Police ↓

Espoir →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–111%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Police or draw
82%
Police or Espoir
75%
Draw or Espoir
43%

Winning margin

Police wins by 2+
31%
Espoir wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Police 1+ goals
80%
Police 2+ goals
48%
Police 3+ goals
22%
Espoir 1+ goals
55%
Espoir 2+ goals
19%
Espoir 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Police (draw refunded)
76%
Espoir (draw refunded)
24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Police at home — creates 1.48, concedes 0.89 · 95 matches

Espoir away — creates 0.70, concedes 1.78 · 50 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Police attack 1.48 + Espoir defence 1.78 → ÷2 → 1.63

Espoir attack 0.70 + Police defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 0.79

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Police scores more
57%
level
25%
Espoir scores more
18%

Police at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Police will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Police 1 – 2 Espoir

Espoir beat Police 2-1 in National Soccer League on January 27, 2023.

The match was played at Muhanga Regional Stadium in Gitarama.