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Police vs Dragons — Championnat National 2019

Police
Police
FT
1 – 3
Dragons
Dragons
12/8/2024Championnat NationalChampionnat National · Group B - 11Stade René Pleven d'Akpakpa

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 71+ matches

Police32%
×Draw32%
Dragons36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Police
0.90
Dragons
0.97

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 71 home / 115 away

creates per match

Police
0.79
Dragons
0.83

allows per match

Police
1.10
Dragons
1.01

finishing

Police+0.00on par
Dragons+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Under
  • Under71
  • Over29

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

63%No
  • No63
  • Yes37

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Police ↓

Dragons →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–015%
0–115%
0–27%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–16%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
85%15%1.5
56%44%2.5
29%71%3.5
12%88%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

Police or draw
64%
Police or Dragons
68%
Draw or Dragons
68%

Winning margin

Police wins by 2+
11%
Dragons wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Police 1+ goals
59%
Police 2+ goals
23%
Police 3+ goals
6%
Dragons 1+ goals
62%
Dragons 2+ goals
25%
Dragons 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Police (draw refunded)
47%
Dragons (draw refunded)
53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
23%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Police at home — creates 0.79, concedes 1.10 · 71 matches

Dragons away — creates 0.83, concedes 1.01 · 115 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Police attack 0.79 + Dragons defence 1.01 → ÷2 → 0.90

Dragons attack 0.83 + Police defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 0.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Police scores more
32%
level
32%
Dragons scores more
36%

Dragons at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Dragons will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Police vs Dragons

Dragons beat Police 3-1 in Championnat National on December 8, 2024.

The match was played at Stade René Pleven d'Akpakpa in Cotonou.