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Police vs Diarra — Première Division 2019

Police
Police
FT
4 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Diarra
Diarra
4/6/2025Première DivisionPremière Division · Round 17Stade Centre Salif Keita

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Police31%
×Draw28%
Diarra41%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Police
1.07
Diarra
1.26

Diarra creates 18% more chances

Season form · 80 home / 26 away

creates per match

Police
0.95
Diarra
1.46

allows per match

Police
1.06
Diarra
1.19

finishing

Police+0.00on par
Diarra+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Police ↓

Diarra →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–112%
0–28%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
41%59%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Police or draw
59%
Police or Diarra
72%
Draw or Diarra
69%

Winning margin

Police wins by 2+
12%
Diarra wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Police 1+ goals
66%
Police 2+ goals
29%
Police 3+ goals
9%
Diarra 1+ goals
72%
Diarra 2+ goals
36%
Diarra 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Police (draw refunded)
44%
Diarra (draw refunded)
56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Police at home — creates 0.95, concedes 1.06 · 80 matches

Diarra away — creates 1.46, concedes 1.19 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Police attack 0.95 + Diarra defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.07

Diarra attack 1.46 + Police defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.26

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Police scores more
31%
level
28%
Diarra scores more
41%

Diarra at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Diarra will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Première Division: Police 4–1 Diarra

Police beat Diarra 4-1 in Première Division on April 6, 2025.

The match was played at Stade Centre Salif Keita in Bamako.