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Police vs Concorde — Premier League 2020

Police
Police
FT
0 – 2
Concorde
Concorde
11/23/2022Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 7Stade Cheikha Ould Boïdiya

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 50+ matches

Police35%
×Draw30%
Concorde35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Police
1.05
Concorde
1.05

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 50 home / 51 away

creates per match

Police
0.88
Concorde
1.08

allows per match

Police
1.02
Concorde
1.22

finishing

Police+0.00on par
Concorde+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Under
  • Under65
  • Over35

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Police ↓

Concorde →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–113%
0–27%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–013%
1–114%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–17%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
62%38%2.5
35%65%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Police or draw
65%
Police or Concorde
70%
Draw or Concorde
65%

Winning margin

Police wins by 2+
14%
Concorde wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Police 1+ goals
65%
Police 2+ goals
28%
Police 3+ goals
9%
Concorde 1+ goals
65%
Concorde 2+ goals
28%
Concorde 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Police (draw refunded)
50%
Concorde (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
14%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Police at home — creates 0.88, concedes 1.02 · 50 matches

Concorde away — creates 1.08, concedes 1.22 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Police attack 0.88 + Concorde defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.05

Concorde attack 1.08 + Police defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 1.05

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 35%?"

Police scores more
35%
level
30%
Concorde scores more
35%

Police at 35% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 35% does not mean "Police will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Police vs Concorde

Concorde beat Police 2-0 in Premier League on November 23, 2022.

The match was played at Stade Cheikha Ould Boïdiya in Nouakchott.