Police Tero 1–1 Thai Honda FC: Result & Stats

Police Tero

FT

1 – 1

Thai Honda FC

8/21/2019

Thai League 2 · Round 27Boonyachinda Stadium (Bangkok)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 31+ matches

Police Tero51%

×Draw25%

Thai Honda FC24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Police TeroExpected goals in this matchThai Honda FC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.60

1.01

Police Tero

1.60

Thai Honda FC

1.01

Police Tero creates 58% more chances

Season form · 51 home / 31 away

1.69

creates per match

1.16

0.86

allows per match

1.52

creates per match

Police Tero

1.69

Thai Honda FC

1.16

allows per match

Police Tero

0.86

Thai Honda FC

1.52

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Police Tero+0.00on par

Thai Honda FC+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Police Tero ↓

Thai Honda FC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–17%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

27%73%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Police Tero or draw

76%

Police Tero or Thai Honda FC

75%

Draw or Thai Honda FC

49%

Winning margin

Police Tero wins by 2+

27%

Thai Honda FC wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Police Tero 1+ goals

80%

Police Tero 2+ goals

47%

Police Tero 3+ goals

22%

Thai Honda FC 1+ goals

64%

Thai Honda FC 2+ goals

27%

Thai Honda FC 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Police Tero (draw refunded)

68%

Thai Honda FC (draw refunded)

32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Police Tero at home — creates 1.69, concedes 0.86 · 51 matches

Thai Honda FC away — creates 1.16, concedes 1.52 · 31 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Police Tero attack 1.69 + Thai Honda FC defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.60

Thai Honda FC attack 1.16 + Police Tero defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 1.01

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Police Tero scores more

51%

level

25%

Thai Honda FC scores more

24%

Police Tero at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Police Tero will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff