Police Tero 2–2 Samut Sakhon FC: Result & Stats

Police Tero

FT

2 – 2

Samut Sakhon FC

3/2/2019

Thai League 2 · Round 4Boonyachinda Stadium (Bangkok)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 48+ matches

Police Tero67%

×Draw19%

Samut Sakhon FC14%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Police TeroExpected goals in this matchSamut Sakhon FC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.18

0.89

Police Tero

2.18

Samut Sakhon FC

0.89

Police Tero creates 145% more chances

Season form · 51 home / 48 away

1.69

creates per match

0.92

0.86

allows per match

2.67

creates per match

Police Tero

1.69

Samut Sakhon FC

0.92

allows per match

Police Tero

0.86

Samut Sakhon FC

2.67

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Police Tero+0.00on par

Samut Sakhon FC+0.00on par

Total goals

Over59
Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Police Tero ↓

Samut Sakhon FC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–14%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–19%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–08%

3–17%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–14%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (11%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

59%41%3.5

36%64%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

Police Tero or draw

86%

Police Tero or Samut Sakhon FC

81%

Draw or Samut Sakhon FC

33%

Winning margin

Police Tero wins by 2+

43%

Samut Sakhon FC wins by 2+

4%

Team goals

Police Tero 1+ goals

89%

Police Tero 2+ goals

64%

Police Tero 3+ goals

37%

Samut Sakhon FC 1+ goals

59%

Samut Sakhon FC 2+ goals

22%

Samut Sakhon FC 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Police Tero (draw refunded)

82%

Samut Sakhon FC (draw refunded)

18%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Police Tero at home — creates 1.69, concedes 0.86 · 51 matches

Samut Sakhon FC away — creates 0.92, concedes 2.67 · 48 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Police Tero attack 1.69 + Samut Sakhon FC defence 2.67 → ÷2 → 2.18

Samut Sakhon FC attack 0.92 + Police Tero defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 0.89

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 67%?"

Police Tero scores more

67%

level

19%

Samut Sakhon FC scores more

14%

Police Tero at 67% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 67% does not mean "Police Tero will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff