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Police Tero vs Navy FC — Thai League 2 2018

Police Tero
Police Tero
FT
0 – 1
Navy FC
Navy FC
8/10/2019Thai League 2Thai League 2 · Round 25Boonyachinda Stadium (Bangkok)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Police Tero59%
×Draw22%
Navy FC18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Police Tero
1.88
Navy FC
0.94

Police Tero creates 100% more chances

Season form · 51 home / 51 away

creates per match

Police Tero
1.69
Navy FC
1.02

allows per match

Police Tero
0.86
Navy FC
2.06

finishing

Police Tero+0.00on par
Navy FC+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Police Tero ↓

Navy FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–111%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–25%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Police Tero or draw
82%
Police Tero or Navy FC
78%
Draw or Navy FC
41%

Winning margin

Police Tero wins by 2+
35%
Navy FC wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Police Tero 1+ goals
85%
Police Tero 2+ goals
56%
Police Tero 3+ goals
29%
Navy FC 1+ goals
61%
Navy FC 2+ goals
24%
Navy FC 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Police Tero (draw refunded)
76%
Navy FC (draw refunded)
24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Police Tero at home — creates 1.69, concedes 0.86 · 51 matches

Navy FC away — creates 1.02, concedes 2.06 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Police Tero attack 1.69 + Navy FC defence 2.06 → ÷2 → 1.88

Navy FC attack 1.02 + Police Tero defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 0.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Police Tero scores more
59%
level
22%
Navy FC scores more
18%

Police Tero at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Police Tero will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Police Tero vs Navy FC

Navy FC beat Police Tero 1-0 in Thai League 2 on August 10, 2019.

The match was played at Boonyachinda Stadium (Bangkok).