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Police Tero vs Lampang FC — Thai League 2 2018

Police Tero
Police Tero
FT
1 – 2
Lampang FC
Lampang FC
4/3/2019Thai League 2Thai League 2 · Round 8Boonyachinda Stadium (Bangkok)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Police Tero48%
×Draw25%
Lampang FC27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Police Tero
1.61
Lampang FC
1.13

Police Tero creates 42% more chances

Season form · 51 home / 102 away

creates per match

Police Tero
1.69
Lampang FC
1.39

allows per match

Police Tero
0.86
Lampang FC
1.54

finishing

Police Tero+0.00on par
Lampang FC+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Police Tero ↓

Lampang FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Police Tero or draw
73%
Police Tero or Lampang FC
75%
Draw or Lampang FC
52%

Winning margin

Police Tero wins by 2+
25%
Lampang FC wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Police Tero 1+ goals
80%
Police Tero 2+ goals
48%
Police Tero 3+ goals
22%
Lampang FC 1+ goals
68%
Lampang FC 2+ goals
31%
Lampang FC 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Police Tero (draw refunded)
64%
Lampang FC (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Police Tero at home — creates 1.69, concedes 0.86 · 51 matches

Lampang FC away — creates 1.39, concedes 1.54 · 102 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Police Tero attack 1.69 + Lampang FC defence 1.54 → ÷2 → 1.61

Lampang FC attack 1.39 + Police Tero defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Police Tero scores more
48%
level
25%
Lampang FC scores more
27%

Police Tero at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Police Tero will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Police Tero vs Lampang FC

Lampang FC beat Police Tero 2-1 in Thai League 2 on April 3, 2019.

The match was played at Boonyachinda Stadium (Bangkok).