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Police Tero vs Chainat — FA Cup 2018

Police Tero
Police Tero
FT
4 – 1
Chainat
Chainat
6/27/2018FA CupFA Cup · 1st Round

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Police Tero72%
×Draw16%
Chainat11%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Police Tero
2.50
Chainat
0.88

Police Tero creates 184% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 4 away

creates per match

Police Tero
2.25
Chainat
0.75

allows per match

Police Tero
1.00
Chainat
2.75

finishing

Police Tero+0.00on par
Chainat+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Police Tero ↓

Chainat →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–13%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–18%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–18%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–06%
4–15%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (11%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
65%35%3.5
43%57%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

Police Tero or draw
89%
Police Tero or Chainat
84%
Draw or Chainat
28%

Winning margin

Police Tero wins by 2+
50%
Chainat wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Police Tero 1+ goals
92%
Police Tero 2+ goals
71%
Police Tero 3+ goals
45%
Chainat 1+ goals
59%
Chainat 2+ goals
22%
Chainat 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Police Tero (draw refunded)
86%
Chainat (draw refunded)
14%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Police Tero at home — creates 2.25, concedes 1.00 · 8 matches

Chainat away — creates 0.75, concedes 2.75 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Police Tero attack 2.25 + Chainat defence 2.75 → ÷2 → 2.50

Chainat attack 0.75 + Police Tero defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 72%?"

Police Tero scores more
72%
level
16%
Chainat scores more
11%

Police Tero at 72% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 72% does not mean "Police Tero will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Police Tero vs Chainat

Police Tero beat Chainat 4-1 in FA Cup on June 27, 2018.