Police Tero 2–0 Army United: Result & Stats

Police Tero

FT

2 – 0

Army United

6/22/2019

Thai League 2 · Round 17Boonyachinda Stadium (Bangkok)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 31+ matches

Police Tero49%

×Draw26%

Army United25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Police TeroExpected goals in this matchArmy United

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.52

1.01

Police Tero

1.52

Army United

1.01

Police Tero creates 50% more chances

Season form · 51 home / 31 away

1.69

creates per match

1.16

0.86

allows per match

1.35

creates per match

Police Tero

1.69

Army United

1.16

allows per match

Police Tero

0.86

Army United

1.35

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Police Tero+0.00on par

Army United+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Police Tero ↓

Army United →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–18%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

46%54%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Police Tero or draw

75%

Police Tero or Army United

74%

Draw or Army United

51%

Winning margin

Police Tero wins by 2+

25%

Army United wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Police Tero 1+ goals

78%

Police Tero 2+ goals

45%

Police Tero 3+ goals

20%

Army United 1+ goals

64%

Army United 2+ goals

27%

Army United 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Police Tero (draw refunded)

66%

Army United (draw refunded)

34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Police Tero at home — creates 1.69, concedes 0.86 · 51 matches

Army United away — creates 1.16, concedes 1.35 · 31 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Police Tero attack 1.69 + Army United defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.52

Army United attack 1.16 + Police Tero defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 1.01

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Police Tero scores more

49%

level

26%

Army United scores more

25%

Police Tero at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Police Tero will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff