Police Tero 2–1 Air Force Central FC

Police Tero

FT

2 – 1

Air Force Central FC

7/31/2019

Thai League 2 · Round 23Boonyachinda Stadium (Bangkok)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Police Tero57%

×Draw23%

Air Force Central FC19%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Police TeroExpected goals in this matchAir Force Central FC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.78

0.93

Police Tero

1.78

Air Force Central FC

0.93

Police Tero creates 91% more chances

Season form · 51 home / 17 away

1.69

creates per match

1.00

0.86

allows per match

1.88

creates per match

Police Tero

1.69

Air Force Central FC

1.00

allows per match

Police Tero

0.86

Air Force Central FC

1.88

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Police Tero+0.00on par

Air Force Central FC+0.00on par

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Police Tero ↓

Air Force Central FC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–111%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–110%

2–25%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

51%49%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Police Tero or draw

81%

Police Tero or Air Force Central FC

77%

Draw or Air Force Central FC

43%

Winning margin

Police Tero wins by 2+

32%

Air Force Central FC wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Police Tero 1+ goals

83%

Police Tero 2+ goals

53%

Police Tero 3+ goals

26%

Air Force Central FC 1+ goals

61%

Air Force Central FC 2+ goals

24%

Air Force Central FC 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Police Tero (draw refunded)

75%

Air Force Central FC (draw refunded)

25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Police Tero at home — creates 1.69, concedes 0.86 · 51 matches

Air Force Central FC away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.88 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Police Tero attack 1.69 + Air Force Central FC defence 1.88 → ÷2 → 1.78

Air Force Central FC attack 1.00 + Police Tero defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 0.93

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Police Tero scores more

57%

level

23%

Air Force Central FC scores more

19%

Police Tero at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Police Tero will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff