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Police National vs Sefwi All Stars — Division One League 2025

Police National
Police National
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Sefwi All Stars
Sefwi All Stars
5/17/2026Division One LeagueDivision One League · Round 30

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Police National55%
×Draw29%
Sefwi All Stars17%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Police National
1.33
Sefwi All Stars
0.60

Police National creates 122% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 15 away

creates per match

Police National
1.13
Sefwi All Stars
0.40

allows per match

Police National
0.80
Sefwi All Stars
1.53

finishing

Police National+0.00on par
Sefwi All Stars+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Under
  • Under70
  • Over30

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

67%No
  • No67
  • Yes33

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Police National ↓

Sefwi All Stars →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–015%
0–19%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–019%
1–112%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–18%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (19%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
85%15%1.5
57%43%2.5
30%70%3.5
13%87%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Police National or draw
83%
Police National or Sefwi All Stars
71%
Draw or Sefwi All Stars
45%

Winning margin

Police National wins by 2+
26%
Sefwi All Stars wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Police National 1+ goals
74%
Police National 2+ goals
38%
Police National 3+ goals
15%
Sefwi All Stars 1+ goals
45%
Sefwi All Stars 2+ goals
12%
Sefwi All Stars 3+ goals
2%

Draw no bet

Police National (draw refunded)
76%
Sefwi All Stars (draw refunded)
24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
22%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Police National at home — creates 1.13, concedes 0.80 · 15 matches

Sefwi All Stars away — creates 0.40, concedes 1.53 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Police National attack 1.13 + Sefwi All Stars defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.33

Sefwi All Stars attack 0.40 + Police National defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 0.60

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Police National scores more
55%
level
29%
Sefwi All Stars scores more
17%

Police National at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Police National will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Police National vs Sefwi All Stars

Police National beat Sefwi All Stars 1-0 in Division One League on May 17, 2026.