Police National 1–2 King Faisal: Result & Stats

Police National

FT

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

King Faisal

11/30/2025

Division One League · Round 9

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Police National46%

×Draw30%

King Faisal24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Police NationalExpected goals in this matchKing Faisal

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.23

0.80

Police National

1.23

King Faisal

0.80

Police National creates 54% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 15 away

1.13

creates per match

0.80

allows per match

1.33

creates per match

Police National

1.13

King Faisal

0.80

allows per match

Police National

0.80

King Faisal

1.33

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Police National+0.00on par

King Faisal+0.00on par

Total goals

Under67
Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No61
Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Police National ↓

King Faisal →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–013%

0–111%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–016%

1–113%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

87%13%1.5

60%40%2.5

33%67%3.5

15%85%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Police National or draw

76%

Police National or King Faisal

70%

Draw or King Faisal

54%

Winning margin

Police National wins by 2+

21%

King Faisal wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Police National 1+ goals

71%

Police National 2+ goals

35%

Police National 3+ goals

13%

King Faisal 1+ goals

55%

King Faisal 2+ goals

19%

King Faisal 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Police National (draw refunded)

66%

King Faisal (draw refunded)

34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

26%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Police National at home — creates 1.13, concedes 0.80 · 15 matches

King Faisal away — creates 0.80, concedes 1.33 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Police National attack 1.13 + King Faisal defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.23

King Faisal attack 0.80 + Police National defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 0.80

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Police National scores more

46%

level

30%

King Faisal scores more

24%

Police National at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Police National will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff