Police National 2–0 Future Stars: Result & Stats

Police National

FT

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Future Stars

1/26/2026

Division One League · Round 17

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Police National51%

×Draw29%

Future Stars20%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Police NationalExpected goals in this matchFuture Stars

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.30

0.70

Police National

1.30

Future Stars

0.70

Police National creates 86% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 15 away

1.13

creates per match

0.60

0.80

allows per match

1.47

creates per match

Police National

1.13

Future Stars

0.60

allows per match

Police National

0.80

Future Stars

1.47

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Police National+0.00on par

Future Stars+0.00on par

Total goals

Under68
Over32

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No63
Yes37

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Police National ↓

Future Stars →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–014%

0–19%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–018%

1–112%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (18%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

86%14%1.5

59%41%2.5

32%68%3.5

14%86%4.5

5%95%

Double chance

Police National or draw

80%

Police National or Future Stars

71%

Draw or Future Stars

49%

Winning margin

Police National wins by 2+

24%

Future Stars wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Police National 1+ goals

73%

Police National 2+ goals

37%

Police National 3+ goals

14%

Future Stars 1+ goals

50%

Future Stars 2+ goals

16%

Future Stars 3+ goals

3%

Draw no bet

Police National (draw refunded)

72%

Future Stars (draw refunded)

28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

24%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Police National at home — creates 1.13, concedes 0.80 · 15 matches

Future Stars away — creates 0.60, concedes 1.47 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Police National attack 1.13 + Future Stars defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.30

Future Stars attack 0.60 + Police National defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 0.70

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Police National scores more

51%

level

29%

Future Stars scores more

20%

Police National at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Police National will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff