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Police National vs Eleven Wise — Division One League 2025

Police National
Police National
FT
3 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Eleven Wise
Eleven Wise
12/29/2025Division One LeagueDivision One League · Round 13

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Police National68%
×Draw23%
Eleven Wise10%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Police National
1.70
Eleven Wise
0.47

Police National creates 262% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 15 away

creates per match

Police National
1.13
Eleven Wise
0.13

allows per match

Police National
0.80
Eleven Wise
2.27

finishing

Police National+0.00on par
Eleven Wise+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Under
  • Under63
  • Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

69%No
  • No69
  • Yes31

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Police National ↓

Eleven Wise →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–15%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–019%
1–19%
1–22%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–017%
2–18%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–14%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–12%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (19%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
64%36%2.5
37%63%3.5
17%83%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Police National or draw
90%
Police National or Eleven Wise
77%
Draw or Eleven Wise
32%

Winning margin

Police National wins by 2+
39%
Eleven Wise wins by 2+
2%

Team goals

Police National 1+ goals
82%
Police National 2+ goals
51%
Police National 3+ goals
24%
Eleven Wise 1+ goals
37%
Eleven Wise 2+ goals
8%
Eleven Wise 3+ goals
1%

Draw no bet

Police National (draw refunded)
87%
Eleven Wise (draw refunded)
13%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
21%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Police National at home — creates 1.13, concedes 0.80 · 15 matches

Eleven Wise away — creates 0.13, concedes 2.27 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Police National attack 1.13 + Eleven Wise defence 2.27 → ÷2 → 1.70

Eleven Wise attack 0.13 + Police National defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 0.47

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 68%?"

Police National scores more
68%
level
23%
Eleven Wise scores more
10%

Police National at 68% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 68% does not mean "Police National will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Division One League: Police National 3–0 Eleven Wise

Police National beat Eleven Wise 3-0 in Division One League on December 29, 2025.