Polet Ljubić 4–1 Mihajlovac: Result & Stats

Polet Ljubić

FT

4 – 1

Mihajlovac

10/22/2023

Srpska Liga - West · West - 10Stadion FK Polet

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Polet Ljubić58%

×Draw23%

Mihajlovac19%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Polet LjubićExpected goals in this matchMihajlovac

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.79

0.92

Polet Ljubić

1.79

Mihajlovac

0.92

Polet Ljubić creates 95% more chances

Season form · 45 home / 30 away

1.60

creates per match

0.60

1.24

allows per match

1.97

creates per match

Polet Ljubić

1.60

Mihajlovac

0.60

allows per match

Polet Ljubić

1.24

Mihajlovac

1.97

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Polet Ljubić+0.00on par

Mihajlovac+0.00on par

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Polet Ljubić ↓

Mihajlovac →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–111%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–110%

2–25%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

51%49%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Polet Ljubić or draw

81%

Polet Ljubić or Mihajlovac

77%

Draw or Mihajlovac

42%

Winning margin

Polet Ljubić wins by 2+

33%

Mihajlovac wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Polet Ljubić 1+ goals

83%

Polet Ljubić 2+ goals

53%

Polet Ljubić 3+ goals

26%

Mihajlovac 1+ goals

60%

Mihajlovac 2+ goals

23%

Mihajlovac 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Polet Ljubić (draw refunded)

75%

Mihajlovac (draw refunded)

25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Polet Ljubić at home — creates 1.60, concedes 1.24 · 45 matches

Mihajlovac away — creates 0.60, concedes 1.97 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Polet Ljubić attack 1.60 + Mihajlovac defence 1.97 → ÷2 → 1.79

Mihajlovac attack 0.60 + Polet Ljubić defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 0.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Polet Ljubić scores more

58%

level

23%

Mihajlovac scores more

19%

Polet Ljubić at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Polet Ljubić will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff